Air passengers to reach 5.2b while cargo volumes to hit 72.5m tonnes in 2025

Air passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that the number of passengers has exceeded the five billion mark. 

While cargo volumes are expected to reach 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2024, total industry revenues are expected to be $1.007 trillion, an increase of 4.4% from 2024 and will be the first time that industry revenues top the $1 trillion mark. Expenses are expected to grow by 4.0% to $940 billion.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced these figures today in its financial outlook for the global airline industry in 2024, which shows a slight strengthening of profitability amid ongoing cost and supply chain challenges.

The outlook projects net profits to be $36.6 billion in 2025 for a 3.6% net profit margin. That is a slight improvement from the expected $31.5 billion net profit in 2024 (3.3% net profit margin). Average net profit per passenger is expected to be $7.0 (below the $7.9 high in 2023 but an improvement from $6.4 in 2024).

Operating profit in 2025 is expected to be $67.5 billion for a net operating margin of 6.7% (improved from 6.4% expected in 2024). 

The return on invested capital (ROIC) for the global industry is expected to be 6.8% in 2025. While this is an improvement from the 2024 ROIC of 6.6%, the returns for the industry at the global level remain below the weighted average cost of capital. ROIC is the strongest for airlines in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, where it did exceed the cost of capital.

“We’re expecting airlines to deliver a global profit of $36.6 billion in 2025. This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonization, and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery. All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability which are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation, and a rising tax burden,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“In 2025, industry revenues will exceed $1 trillion for the first time. It’s also important to put that into perspective. A trillion dollars is a lot—almost 1% of the global economy. That makes airlines a strategically important industry. But remember that airlines carry $940 billion in costs, not to mention interest and taxes. They retain a net profit margin of just 3.6%. Put another way, the buffer between profit and loss, even in the good year that we are expecting of 2025, is just $7 per passenger. With margins that thin, airlines must continue to watch every cost and insist on similar efficiency across the supply chain—especially from our monopoly infrastructure suppliers who all too often let us down on performance and efficiency,” said Walsh.

IATA highlighted the broad benefits of growing connectivity. The most recent estimates show that airline employment is expected to grow to 3.3 million in 2025. Airlines are the core of a global aviation value chain that employs 86.5 million people and generates $4.1 trillion in economic impact, accounting for 3.9% of global GDP (2023 figures).  Connectivity is an economic catalyst for growth in nearly all industries. 

“Looking at 2025, for the first time, traveler numbers will exceed five billion and the number of flights will reach 40 million. This growth means that aviation connectivity will be creating and supporting jobs across the global economy. The most obvious are the hospitality and retail sectors which will gear up to meet the needs of a growing number of customers. But almost every business benefits from the connectivity that air transport provides, making it easier to meet customers, receive supplies, or transport products. On top of this, growth in aviation also contributes to achieving almost all the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),” said Walsh.